What is the starting point for the propensity output when no prior information is available?

The starting point for the propensity output when no prior information is available is set at 0.5. This midpoint value represents an equal likelihood of a positive or negative outcome, which is appropriate when there is no historical data to favor one outcome over another.

In decisioning frameworks, it is essential to have a neutral or balanced starting point when no prior information exists about customer behavior or preferences. A propensity score of 0.5 indicates that the model treats each scenario with impartiality, providing a foundation for further refinements based on actual user behavior as data is gathered.

Setting the propensity at other values, like 0.25 or 0.75, could imply a bias or preconception about the outcomes which is not justified when beginning from a data-neutral standpoint. Thus, the choice of 0.5 is fundamental in ensuring that the propensity model starts without any biases or assumptions.